01
Observe the system
Compare forecast families with live station observations and the day’s realized temperature path.
Weather market intelligence
Measure the weather.Price the probability.
Polymeter turns multi-model forecasts, live observations, and market prices into calibrated signals for weather prediction markets.
Transparent methodologyMulti-model consensusPaper-trading validation
New York · Highest temperatureCloses in 04:18:32
Consensus estimate
Opportunity58.7°F
57°F or lower22¢ market · 14% model
58–59°F31¢ market · 46% model
60–61°F28¢ market · 32% model
62°F or higher19¢ market · 8% model
Signal
Preferred side
YES · 58–59°F
- Adjusted edge
- +12%
- Confidence
- 81%
- Liquidity
- $8.4k
- Spread
- 2¢
02
Estimate fair value
Convert weather uncertainty into calibrated probabilities for every tradable outcome bucket.
03
Surface mispricing
Separate model disagreement from actionable edge with liquidity, spread, and confidence controls.
Built for disciplined decisions
Evidence before conviction.
Forecast consensus
Independent model families, equal-weighted to reduce false precision.
Station-aware calibration
Historical station bias and forecast spread shape every estimate.
Execution-aware signals
Edge is tested against the actual spread, liquidity, and entry price.
Strategy validation
Paper trades connect expected value to realized outcomes over time.